By 2050, Spain’s coastline will recede some 40 metres

SPAIN -- Water levels will impact tourism and port activity, as well as intensifying the effect of storms. Costs will amount to up to 3% of GNP in 2050. The worst impact will be felt at the deltas of the Guadalquivir, Ebro and Guadiana rivers. This, according to research on climate change and its effect on the Spanish coastline. It concludes that by 2050, the average retreat of the coastline of the Iberian Peninsula will be between 2 and 4 metres. This would reflect a rise in sea level of between 60 and 72 centimetres above the average levels that existed between 1986 and 2005. This worst case scenario would happen if nothing at all is done now, and there is no change in the ever more rapid advance of climate change, or global warming – but don’t hold your breath. The main threat is the rise in sea level, warmer water temperature and its acidity.

The effects of this phenomenon the entire coastline environment, from the many activities carried out in major and minor ports and, as is to be expected, it will have a very serious impact on the country’s GNP, with the crucial tourism industry at the head, all of which will suffer under an increase in the intensity and frequency of storms, as well as highly noticeable erosion and destruction of the ecosystem.

River basins in Spain (CLICK TO ENLARGE)

It is calculated that the accumulated cost of these losses, according to Íñigo Losada, who headed the report’s investigation, called Cambio climático en la costa española (Climate Change on the Spanish Coastline) and financed by the Ministry of Agriculture, would be in the range of €500 to 4,000, which represents between 0.5% and a full 3% of the country’s GNP.

The report reminds us that the coasts are what produce the vast majority of income for the tourism industry, and the “Mediterranean region is the world’s primary destination, and generates one third of its income,” points out Losada. The industry depends largely on the state of the coastline, particularly its beaches, so the consequences of a rise in sea level would be catastrophic.

As to port activity, says the report, they would undergo considerable changes to their operational conditions. Higher tides caused by the weather, taller waves and increased wind activity are to be expected in all Spanish ports, as well as all the infrastructure along the coasts: energy, transportation, sanitation, etc., which require measures for adaptation to the new conditions, that must be carried out during the next few decades.

“We must start work right now,” says Losada. “Every study made on this matter insists that it would be much cheaper to adapt now to all these future probabilities, than to bare the cost of doing nothing at all.”