What will Spain be like in fifty years' time?

Fewer and older inhabitants, less births, more deaths

Population growth
(Huffington Post, España)
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MADRID -- The population of Spain has been falling steadily since 2012 and the future does not look rosy, according to a recent article in El País. Recent forecasts by the Spanish Institute of Statistics (INE in its Spanish acronym) show that the country will lose up to 1 million inhabitants over the next 15 years (total population on January 1, 2014: 46,507,760). If the demographic tendencies continue as they are, some 5,6 million people will have been lost over the next 50 years. That would take us back to the population of 2000, approximately. There are several consequences to that loss.

Fewer inhabitants

This would be the result of fewer births and more deaths. The economic consequences would be close to catastrophic: less tax money collected, so less money to take care of the older population (pensions, hospitalization, medical facilities, etc). This would bring about a significant downturn in purchasing power, which in turn would impact the country's entire economy.

Older population

Projected estimates by the INE say that the over-65 population will have jumped to 15,829,224 people - 87.4% more than at present. This same segment will represent 38.7% of the population. The number of people over 100 would have soared from the 13,551 at present to the staggering figure of 372,000 in fifty years.

The main causes are a decrease in the number of births and the progressive increase in deaths. In fact, estimates have it that by next year, 2015, there will be more deaths than births for the first time ever. This becomes more acute from 2044, says the report, when the difference between deaths and births is negative: some 8 million people until 2064.

The difference, it seems, will not be compensated by net migration (the difference between those coming into the country - by whatever means, legal or otherwise - and those leaving), which is estimated at only 2.8 million.

Fewer and later births

The number of births will continue to decrease, a trend that began in 2009. Some 25% fewer children are expected to be born between 2014 and 2018, a quarter fewer than in the previous 15 years.

Female fecundity is one principal reason. This has shown a gradual downturn: the average of children per woman will go down from the present age 1.27 to 1.24 in fifteen years, to 1.22 in 2064. Equally, the average age for a first child will continue its upward trend: from the present 31.7 to 33 in fifty years. The report adds that the decrease in births will be determined by a decrease in the fertility age, which will be cut by about 2 million in 15 years -- a downward trend of -17.4%

Migration and regionalisation

The INE expects that the difference between immigration and emigration to be in the negative until 2020, a trend that began in 2010 with the advent of the financial crisis. By then, Spain will have lost some 275,000 inhabitants. Things will change in the opposite direction from 2021, says the INE, and more people will be coming in than going out -- a net gain of 2.5 million by 2064.

The distribution of population is also expected to be impacted, inasmuch as the places where people choose to live will also be changing. Thus, for example, only Madrid will gain some 107,844 residents up to 2029, and the Canaries some 60,807, the Balearics about 54,000. The Autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla are also expected to gain population.

The rest of the regions will be losing population, particularly the Community of Valencia, to the tune of 240,000, followed by Castilla y León, Catalonia, Galicia and the Basque Country. The trend will be repeated in the years following, up to 2064.

(Original sources: INE, El País, El Huffington Post and El Mundo)